Monday, July 25, 2005

The timing of this 'new' flu pandemic is questionable

I don't know how many of you are following the progress of the H5N1 flu outbreak in China, for those that haven't, I recommend you keep your eyes open. (for news I recommend this site: http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html)

As a concerned person and as a degreed microbiologist I have been following H5N1 development in asia and I've noticed some odd things afoot. The WHO (the world health organization) has been very slow to get-in-the-game with this virus, and China has been actively denying human flu victims and even harrassing those who report about it on the web.

Last year in an article dated 20 Sept 2004, when the WHO was doing nothing and acting as though a flu epidemic was not a serious near-term threat, US researchers suddenly decided to do some research on the 1918 flu virus -a bug that few today would have any immunity against. http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/news/39554.php

And now in more recent months it appears a 1918 style flu virus is on the loose in asia.

Over the weekend the WHO comes out with pretty unambiguous talk of the threat of a global pandemic as a very real threat: http://www.todayonline.com/articles/62928.asp

Hmmm, we see the oil running out, we see masses of humanity eating up all the resources because so few of them have been taught how to live sustainably (because to do so would make them independent and thus free). So we see the facist curtain coming down. . .of course the question of what to do with the global population problem has been raised by powerful people before http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Study_Memorandum_200. Might these powerful people also consider a flu epidemic as a manageable means of controlling global population levels?

Yes, I do think conspiracies happen -in fact I think they happen all the time (have you heard of the mafia!?), if I had such power as many do, I think I'd find it very difficult not to conspire with others who have power in order to preserve that power into the future for my children -this is a no-brainer for me.

Well the hole just goes deeper. Strangely?, even while flu vaccine production has not been keeping pace with demand year over year (strange because there is money to be made and pharmaceutical companies are anything but lazy when it comes to making money), it seems that Chiron, a large pharma that produces much of the worlds flu vaccine, won't be distributing it AT ALL this year as they've had 'contaminant' problems. http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050721-103659-1609r

Knowing something of how these products are made, I can attest that a large conspiracy isn't needed to bring down this supply, just one key person could do it.

***Error correction (05/08/10)****

'Of course, they weren't going to be producing an H5N1 vaccine anyway, so why is this important?' -This is not necessarily true, I was speculating regarding Chiron's vaccine production. Overall global flu vaccine production does however entail the production of H5N1 vaccine in small quantities but, it seems highly unlikely that this H5N1 vaccine will be very effective as H5N1 is rapidly diversifying as it spreads through russia and into europe ( http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08070504/H5N1_Vaccine_Outpaced_By_H5N1.html ). Thus the number of variants of human recombinants will be large and very dissimilar to the current vaccine. So what I mentioned above, while not accurate, may as well be accurate.

Further, as there is less non-H5 vaccine (due to the Chiron contamination issue) there will be more non-H5 strains circulating this year which will greatly INCREASE the number of recombinants that will occur with H5, thus leading to a much greater number of more lethal virus into the future. In fact, there isn't a more opportune time than the coming flu season to have such a vaccination shortage, if your aim is to bring about a flu pandemic.


More Links now dated -check for new ones:

(05/08/10) WHO STOCKPILING ANTI-VIRALS
http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5254709-112338,00.html

(05/08/10) US DOCTORS ARE CONSIDERING A POSSIBLE THIRD DOSE OF VACCINE (this may be necessary to make the vaccine remotely effective, but also reduces possible number of doses available by one third!)
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08080501/H5N1_Vaccine_Third_Dose.html

2 Comments:

At Wed Jul 27, 05:03:00 AM GMT+1, Blogger tylerjord said...

UPDATE: Resistant ducks increase odds of disease spread.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1699287,00.html

 
At Mon Aug 15, 07:28:00 AM GMT+1, Blogger tylerjord said...

From a speech by US Senator Bill Frist originally posted here
*******
In the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, the mortality rate was 3 percent, which seems merciful in comparison with the 50 percent mortality rate of today's highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu. In just the past 18 months, avian flu has caused the death or destruction of more than 140 million birds in 11 Asian nations. And, most alarming, in four of those nations, H5N1 has taken the worried jump from birds to infect humans.

Should the virus shift and human-to-human transmission become sustained, the cost in human lives could be substantial -- especially when vaccine would not become available, at best, until six to nine months after the outbreak of a pandemic. And even then, the vaccine would not be available to every American. Nor do we have enough of the only effective anti-viral agent Tamiflu stockpiled to treat more than 1 percent of our population.

To meet this threat, I propose an unprecedented effort -- a "Manhattan Project for the 21st century" -- not with the goal of creating a destructive new weapon, but to defend against destruction wreaked by infectious diseases such as H5N1 and biological weapons.

Such a project would include substantial increases in support for fundamental research, medical education, emergency capacity and public health infrastructure; the unleashing of the private sector and unprecedented collaboration among government and industry and academia; and the creation of secure stores of treatments and vaccines and vast networks of distribution.

But, above all, I speak of action -- without excuses, without exceptions -- with the goal of protecting every American and the capability to help protect the people of the world.

Many benefits other than survival would follow in train. We will come to understand diseases that we do not now understand and find the cures for diseases that we cannot now cure. It will add to the economy both a potent principle of organization and a stimulus like war, but war's opposite in effect. It will power the productive life of the country into new fields, transforming the information age with unexpected rapidity into the biotechnical age that is to come.

 

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